USMLE Step 2 CK Score Prediction Guide
A USMLE Step 2 CK score predictor provides a probabilistic estimate of your actual exam performance using practice scores from NBME forms, UWSA exams, and Free 120 percentages.
By analyzing historical data from thousands of students, modern models can predict your final score with a reliability of ±5–8 points. This is essential for students targeting competitive specialties where every point matters.
Executive Summary
The target Step 2 CK score for competitive specialties has shifted. Predictors now use a 3-method ensemble to provide a 3-digit score with a 95% confidence interval.
Most Predictive Assessments
Based on our 2026 dataset, these exams show the strongest correlation (r values) with actual Step 2 CK scores. For the full ranking, see which NBME form is most accurate.
NBME Form 14
Mathematical correlation of r = 0.92, making it the current primary benchmarker.
UWSA 2
Crucial for endurance testing, though it often trends 3 points above actual scores.
How Prediction Works
Modern USMLE score predictors rely on three core statistical pillars:
- Bias-Corrected Averages: adjusting for the historical overprediction or underprediction of specific forms.
- K-Nearest Neighbors: comparing your trajectory to 5,000+ similar historic student profiles.
- Per-form regression: calibrating each assessment to the real-score scale with its own form-specific fit.
We explain the full pipeline — normalization, outlier filtering, and validation — on our methodology page.
| Score Range | Percentile (2026) | Specialty Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| 265+ | 95th+ | Highly Competitive (Derm, Ortho, Neurosurg) |
| 255–264 | 80th–94th | Very Competitive (Rad, Gas, Psych) |
| 245–254 | 60th–79th | Competitive (Gen Surg, OBGYN, IM) |
Wondering where your number lands? Read what is a good Step 2 CK score for the full percentile and specialty breakdown.
Predict Your Score Instantly
Calculate your predicted score using our data-driven model trained on 5,039 verified student score reports. 100% anonymous.
Start Prediction →Frequently asked questions
How does a Step 2 CK score predictor actually work?
It blends your practice scores (NBME forms, UWSA, Free 120) in a 3-method ensemble — K-nearest-neighbor matching against thousands of verified outcomes, bias-corrected weighted averaging, and per-form regression — then returns a 3-digit estimate with a 95% confidence range rather than a single number.
Are these predictors 100% accurate?
No. You should always view a prediction as a 95% probability range. A prediction of 250 with an error margin of ±5 means there is a high statistical likelihood you will score between 245 and 255.