Calibrated exclusively for the Pass/Fail era (Post-Jan 2022) • Accurate Probability Analytics
Quick answer
This free Step 1 predictor converts your NBME (Forms 29–33), Free 120, and UWorld percentages into a probability of passing, anchored on the NBME's officially published pass-probability table (July 2024). USMLE Step 1 has been Pass/Fail since January 26, 2022 — there is no 3-digit score — so readiness means a high pass probability (95%+) on a recent form with a flat or rising trend.
Last updated: July 2026 · How we calculate this
Step 1 NBME Correlation and Prediction Analytics
Since USMLE Step 1 transitioned to a PASS/FAIL scoring system in January 2022, the strategy for preparation has fundamentally changed. The goal is no longer to secure a 260+, but to cross the passing threshold (equated to approximately a 196) with absolute statistical certainty.
NBME Form Correlation: Modern predictors must abandon the older 3-digit score models. Instead, we analyze your "Equated Percent Correct" on recent NBME self-assessments (Forms 25 through 31). Historical data clearly dictates that consistent performance above 65-68% correlated to an extraordinarily high pass rate before the scoring transition, and this mathematical anchor remains the gold standard today.
Free 120 and UWorld Significance: The "Free 120" assessment taken within one week of your exam date is the ultimate stamina and question-style benchmark. Paired with your UWorld QBank first-pass analytics, our probability engine establishes a confident percentage reflecting your passing buffer size, preventing false reassurance and unnecessary anxiety alike.
👉 Read the full breakdown of our prediction methodologyStep 1 Predictor FAQs
Will you provide a 3-digit score equivalent?
No. Because the actual exam has been PASS/FAIL since Jan 2022, providing a completely speculative 3-digit score yields false reassurance. Our tool focuses strictly on the margin of safety above the passing threshold.
What is considered a "safe" score on NBME practice exams?
Generally, consistently scoring above 65-68% equated percent correct on multiple recent NBME forms (like Forms 30 and 31) confers a 95%+ probability of passing the real exam.
Does UWorld First Pass percentage matter for Step 1?
Yes, while UWorld is primarily a learning tool rather than an assessment tool, completing UWorld with an average above 60% historically correlates with a very high Step 1 passing likelihood.
What NBME score guarantees a pass on Step 1?
No practice score guarantees a pass. But NBME's published pass-probability data shows that consistently scoring above 65–68% equated percent correct on recent forms (29–33) corresponds to a 95%+ probability of passing. Enter your exact form and score into the calculator above to get your personalized probability.