Blog · Data & Analysis

USMLE Score Prediction Blog

Data-driven articles on USMLE Step 1, Step 2 CK, and Step 3 score prediction — NBME form accuracy, UWSA correlations, and how to read your practice scores. Exam facts are checked against primary sources such as usmle.org, nbme.org and published research.

Step 3 Guide9 min read

USMLE Step 3 Passing Score, Pass Rate & Percentiles (2026)

Step 3 passing is currently 200 (since January 2024, under scheduled review) — roughly the 4th percentile, so a misleading target. Full percentile table, pass rates and the retake rules most students get wrong.

Aug 5, 2026Read
Step 3 Guide9 min read

Step 3 CCS Cases (2026): How Many, What’s Scored, Strategy

Step 3 Day 2 still includes 13–14 case simulations — the “reduced to 9” claim is a misreading of USMLE’s own change table. The real format, the scoring rules quoted verbatim, and why CCS tests something your QBank score cannot predict.

Aug 5, 2026Read
Step 3 Guide8 min read

NBME 6, 7 & 8 to Step 3 Conversion & UWSA Correlation

How NBME 6, 7 and 8 (CCMSA) and UWSA scores feed a Step 3 estimate, what the published Step 2 CK → Step 3 research shows, why CCS cases swing your score, and an honest look at the FSMB early pass/fail check.

Jun 27, 2026Read
Step 1 Guide10 min read

How to Calculate Your Step 1 Pass Probability

Step 1 is Pass/Fail — so the goal is a safe margin above the passing standard, not a 3-digit score. Here is how to read your NBME self-assessments (Forms 29–34) into a real pass probability, form by form.

Jun 27, 2026Read
Data Analysis8 min read

Which NBME Form Is Most Accurate for Step 2 CK? (2026)

Which practice exam should you trust before Step 2 CK? What NBME’s own published research shows, why no honest per-form ranking exists, and how to pick, time and combine your forms.

Jun 27, 2026Read
Guide6 min read

USMLE Step 2 CK Score Prediction Guide (2026)

How modern score predictors work: what the published research says about NBME self-assessments, how a forecast is built, and how to read your 3-digit prediction as a range.

May 20, 2026Read